SDPW
+618.50

Empoli v Palermo Red Card in Match

Serie A - 07 Jan 17:00

"Huge game for both sides. I've priced this up around the 3.00 mark - looks good value."

STAKE: 10    TOTAL BETS: 40
3.75 @

Original Odds
Sat 7th Jan 16:13
N/A

Updated Odds
  • Super quick here to meet the deadline. Backing there to be a red card in the game between Empoli and Palermo at odds of 3.75 with William Hill.

    These look very good odds, as low as 2.95 in some places. These two sides are scrapping it out near the bottom in 17th and 18th place respectively. Between them they've only won 5/36 games this season. Massive game for both sides here.

    Empoli have the 2nd worst disciplinary record in Serie A, having picked up 58 cards in 18 games - an average of 3.22 cards per game. They have only picked up 2 reds, but this bet would have won in 6/18 of their games, which suggests odds of 3.00.

    Palermo have the 4th worst record, having picked up 55 cards in their 18 - an average of 3.06 cards per game. They have picked up 4 red cards and this bet would have landed in 5/18, which suggests odds of 3.60.

    Put it together and we get combined expected odds of 3.30 for a red here, not taking into account the importance of this game.

    The ref for this one is Paolo Valeri. He averages a crazy 7.25 cards per game across his 8 Serie A games this season. He has shown 4 reds and this has won in 3/8, a strike rate of 38%, which implies odds of 2.63 for him to get the red out.

    The card line for this game is O6.5 and at prices below evens. So the bookies are expecting there to be 7+ cards in this one, therefore I feel the red card angle offers some great value. 3.75 is too big, I'd have it more around the 3.00 mark.

    Sorry for the short write up, thought this kicked off at 6, not 5!

Comments

If you are not seeing the odds Chris your browser probably has an "Ad Blocker". You just need to turn it off or add this site to a list of exceptions so the bookie images and odds display.
Simon Linklater   said on  Saturday 7th January 17:02
cheers!
Chris Tyler   said on  Saturday 7th January 16:35
William Hill offering best odds at 3.75. 188Bet, 888sport and Marathon all offering the market but at lower odds.
SDPW   said on  Saturday 7th January 16:24
where can this bet be placed?
Chris Tyler   said on  Saturday 7th January 16:22

Bets Placed

Craig
+302.00

Craig bet £10.00 on this tip.


Odds: 3.75    
Chris Tyler
-51.05

Chris Tyler bet £10.00 on this tip.


Odds: 3.75    
Simon
+8,425.70

Simon bet £10.00 on this tip.


Odds: 3.75    
HunterUk
+1,653.46

HunterUk bet £10.00 on this tip.


Odds: 3.75    
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