TopJockey
+1284.20

Leicester Wilberdragon

Leicester - 12 Jan 14:10

"Ran well on chase debut, a mistake late on proved costly though. This is easier and he looks very well handicapped."

STAKE: 10    TOTAL BETS: 8.91
7 @

Original Odds
Wed 11th Jan 16:28
6 @

Updated Odds
Wed 11th Jan 16:41
  • This is a 22 furlong, Class 3, Novices Handicap Chase. The forecast going is good/good to firm in places.
    Wilberdragon is a 7 year old gelding, trained by Charlie Longsdon, ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies.
    Charlie Longsdon has a 40% strike rate over fences here at Leicester (4 from 10).
    Sam TwistonDavies has a 27% strike rate over fences here at Leicester (12 from 44).
    Last time out Wilberdragon made his chase debut and ran a very good race in my opinion.
    He was right in the mix with the front four horses and looking like a key player, unfortunately a mistake 4 out cost him all momentum and he finished 3rd.
    That was at Sandown though, a very tough place for a horse to make it's chase debut. He gained vital experience at a tough place and his jumping task is now far easier.
    He was also well supported that day, backed form 9/2 into 11/4 so a big run might have expected.
    The 1st, 2nd & the faller (who would have also gone close) have all raced since and gone well off marks of 135.
    Wilberdragon however is rated just 122 so this is surely a 130+ rated horse and therefore he's very well treated here.
    Today's opposition are rated 128 & lower so Wilberdragon faces an easier task than last time. Why he's almost double the price I don't know.
    So not only is this horse well handicapped but he also faces an easier task than last time, both in terms of opposition and the jumping task.
    He has to go close if putting his previous chase experience too good use here, really he should be winning, 6/1 is a big price.
    Betfair are offering odds of 7.00 with BOG.

Comments

Odds cut to 5/1 already, that's a price worth taking still, should be around 11/4.
TopJockey   said on  Wednesday 11th January 16:45

Bets Placed

SW
+5,064.37

SW bet £8.91 on this tip.


Odds: 6.00    
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