TopJockey
+1284.20

Supreme Novices Hurdle Chateau Conti

Supreme Novices Hurdle - 14 Mar 13:30

"Won his last two in France with the from taking many boosts since. Natural front runner who finds plenty. Looks an ideal Supreme type."

STAKE: 10    TOTAL BETS: 5
21 @

Original Odds
Mon 21st Nov 19:06
17 @

Updated Odds
Sat 7th Jan 19:04
  • This is the Supreme Novices Hurdle. A 16 furlong, Grade 1.
    Chateau Conti is a 4 year old gelding, trained by Willie Mullins.
    Willie Mullins has won the Supreme five times now including winning three of the last four renewals. Trying to spot one of his potential Supreme winners early is key as once they win a race or even just get spotted working well on the gallops the odds are gone.
    At present there's five of Willie Mullins horses that strike me as potential Supreme horses and I think Chateau Conti is by far the most interesting.
    Chateau Conti raced three times in France for his old trainer, form figures of 7-1-1.
    His debut saw him finish 7th in an 11 furlong bumper, however he was only beaten 1 & 1/4 lengths in a bunch finish. The first seven horses home that day were well clear of the rest.
    That race was clearly thought to be very strong form as five of those first seven horses home that day have now been sold on and sent to the U.K. Willie Mullins trains three of them, Paul Nicholls has one and Brian Ellison has the other.
    Chateau Conti was then given an 11 month break following what looked to be an impressive debut, that suggests this horse might have had an issue and might not have even been 100% on debut.
    He returned from his 11 month absence to win a 12 furlong bumper, only the video replay can do him justice...

    As you can see he was very impressive that day, pulling his way to the front after a couple of furlongs, tanking round with his head buried in his chest, then kicking clear 2 out to win comfortably going away.
    The form has taken a boost since as the horse in 2nd, Colere Noire, won her next two races and placed second in a further two.
    21 days later he returned to win a 13 furlong bumper, again the video replay is well worth a watch...

    Yet another impressive performance, again tanking his way to the front early and even when challenged on the turn for home he kicked clear within a matter of strides for another easy win.
    The form of that win has been franked since too with the 3rd, Cavisto, winning twice and placing second once.
    Personally I'm very taken by this horse. Visually he was so impressive in his two wins, showing a good cruising speed from the front and the ability to see of challengers. We also know the form is strong having beaten plenty of future winners and plenty that were snapped up by big owners.
    Every time I watch one of those video replays I have visions of Ruby Walsh going from the front on him in the Supreme and seeing off all challengers. He did this when winning this race in 2013 on Champagne Fever and in 2014 with the late, great Vautour.
    As impressive as he was in France he was only with small yard so might have improved massively for joining Willie Mullins and making use of his world class facilities.
    He's also been snapped up by Edward O'Connell, owner of 2015 Arkle winner Un De Sceaux. Edward O'Connell is very selective with what he buys so personally I think this speaks volumes.
    He didn't send Un De Sceaux to the Supreme but that's probably because he didn't go to Willie Mullins until February 2013, not enough time to get him ready for the Supreme in mid march.
    I bet Edward O'Connell was gutted that he missed the Supreme with Un De Sceaux as he would have surely had a chance of winning. He might be keen to make up for that so I suspect the purchase of Chateau Conti was with this race in mind. He also sent him to Willie Mullins early, on October 30th 2016.
    I terms of ability shown so far I think this horse is a potential Supreme winner. The fact he can front run and see of challengers is also vital while being in the ownership of Edward O Connell could also signal this race as a target.
    Loads to like and although the odds of 20/1 might seem short for a horse yet to race on these shores I actually think it's a good price. No surprise to see this horse out in the coming months and a win would see these odds slashed in half given the volatility of this market right now.
    Bet365 are offering odds of 21.00.

Comments

Very impressive win on debut for Willie Mullins earlier, made all and won at a canter. Around 16/1 for this now.
TopJockey   said on  Saturday 7th January 14:04

Bets Placed

CJ
+2,443.54

CJ bet £5.00 on this tip.


Odds: 21.00    
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