I’ve been a member for six months, and I’ve come to the conclusion that the only way you’re getting near Dean’s recorded P/L is if you’re betting with small stakes and are unrestricted everywhere.
Everything is recorded at top price, which is generally fine for the match odds but not for outrights and correct scores.
To illustrate this, a couple of weeks ago a player was tipped at 500/1 e/w for 0.25 pts e/w at the British Open, which was a price offered by one bookmaker. The next highest price available was 300/1. In the end the player was eliminated at the QF stage, but had he won and you couldn’t get on at the one bookmaker who had 500/1 that would have been at least a 75 point difference between your profit and what he’s recorded.
He’s recommended the same player to win his quarter this week at 18/1 (with one firm, 14/1 the second highest priced) for a 1 point stake.
Dean generally goes between 1 and 3 points with his match betting, so a halfway serious punter might decide to stake £50 a point or higher. For a niche market like quarter betting, I’m not sure Hills would lay £50 at 18/1 and if they did and it won you’d probably be looking at the end of that account.
He gets three because he probably is profitable long-term on prices which people can realistically get on, but a lot of his profit seems to be based on big winners which are at odds which are unattainable for the average punter.
One Response
Thanks for the review. Very detailed and I do understand this issue. Not so bad if the stand out prices are with sharp bookies. I have to admit my odds availability is just 50% which is quite a bit below my overall average. Wasn’t a problem when I was winning but this latest poor run has really made an impact on my ROI and profit. Getting alarmingly close to that 5% cut off point.