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Horse betting strategies involve analysing a number of factors to increase the chance of winning. Bettors combine statistical analysis, historical data and their knowledge of the sport to identify potential winners. But do they really yield any fruit? 

The Advanced Strategies

One advanced strategy is called “Dutching”. Dutching is where bettors place multiple bets on different horses in the same race to ensure a profit no matter the outcome. The odds must be favourable for this to work.

Another lesser-known method is called “betting the bounce”, which is where bettors predict a loss of form in a horse that performed well in its last race.

Value betting is another strategy. This involves finding horses with higher and lower odds than their true probability of winning, which betters identify through analysis and pattern recognition.

Advanced betters use machine learning algorithms to analyse vast amounts of data, weather conditions and other variables to predict outcomes more accurately.

These more sophisticated approaches give bettors a better chance of winning, although there are simpler ways beginners can get more insight into a horse’s potential performance.  Let’s look at some of the key things horse racing bettors consider.

Form

Just as football teams and cricket teams have form, so too do horses.

Form study looks at a horse’s recent races and their finishes, speed and consistency – their form.

Bettors compare the level of competition the horse has faced in recent races, and track the conditions of those races, looking how at how the horse performs on different surfaces (dirt, turf, synthetic tracks) and in various weathers.

Form stats are available on most horse racing betting sites. 

Pace handicapping

You’ve likely heard the term ‘front-runner’. Horse race bettors look at the rate at which horses run races, and identify front-runners (quick starters), closers (horse that conserve energy then make late moves to win) and mid-pack runners (those with a consistent pace throughout). 

This helps to identify possible winners in scenarios like a race with several front-runners and one closer (who might benefit from quick starters tiring early).

Speed figures

A horse’s speed figure rates their performance relative to others in the same races, which can give a more accurate picture because the conditions, jockeys and other factors are taken into account. 

Bettors compare these figures across horses to identify the fastest horses.

Jockeys and trainers 

Bettors also analyse jockeys and trainers. They assess the skill and recent performance of the jockey riding the horses.

Trainer statistics are evaluated to see the trainer’s success with comparable horses and conditions.

For example, a jockey might have recently ridden a similar front-running horse on a dirt track and won that race, which may indicate another successful performance.

Class and distance

The class – level of competition – is analysed to see a horse stacks up.

The distance of races is also evaluated. Bettors look at how horses have done in other races of similar distances.

Public betting trends

Bettors often analyse the public’s betting to spot potentially undervalued horses.

Odds get adjusted according to the public’s favourites, and an undervalued horse can offer better returns if they win.

To sum up

Bettors use a variety of data points to predict the outcome of races. They consider factors such as a horse’s form, the conditions of a race, and recent jockey performance. Some bettors use more advanced strategies and data analysis. While nothing can tell you definitively whether or not a horse will win, statistics and metrics represent strong indicators of a prospective win. 

In any case, it beats running off instinct alone!