We all know about Spurs problems at defending and with so many key players out they could be in for a tough afternoon at the City Ground.
Forest have created 36% of their Total xG from set pieces which is the most in the Premier League.
Centre half Milenkovic has scored in 2 of his last 3 matches and has an xG of 0.16 per 90 this season, again, the best in the division.
0.75pts – Milenkovic to score anytime 11.5 @ Live Score Bet
0.25pts – Milenkovic to score first 31.0 @ Live Score Bet
Following the excellent Lewis Jones here and he makes a compelling argument for this wager. Brentford have been terrible on their travels losing 19 of their last 24 away games against Premier League opponents.
To make matters worse they are missing key defender Pinnock. Without Pinnock in the side their win rate drops from 40% to 15%.
Brighton have seen 14 of their last 15 matches feature Both Teams to Score and this bet would also have landed in 7 of Brentford’s last 8 away games.
Slightly bigger odds available if you are willing to shop around, but 7/4 widely available.
1pt – Brighton win and Both Teams to Score v Brentford @ 2.75
I’ve backed 3 of Anon Darts Bets free selections so far in the PDC World Championship and all 3 won. So I’m not about to stop right now.
His model has priced this up at 1.5 and Dee is offering 1.83. I’m not sure how his model works other than it must calculate the average 180s each player hits and the expected number of legs.
Not that easy to predict, especially with set play, but his model works to the tune of a 15% ROI, so I’ll continue to back these free bets.
1pt – Heta v Woodhouse Over 12.5 180s – 1.83
Lewis Jones mentioned this on the Betfair podcast and when I saw Andy Schooler put it up as well, it convinced me to get involved. So credit to Andy as he swayed by decision.
Lewis did mention how Tielemans has adopted a more advanced position in recent games and came very close to an assist against Man City, when a goal was ruled out.
He’s created 38 key passes already this season and had 4 assists. Villa face a Newcastle team with a lot of defensive injuries so don’t be surprised if they manage to score a goal or two.
6/1 or bigger looks a decent price here. I backed this with Dee at these odds.
1pt – Tielemans Anytime Assist – 7.0
