Master CFB Betting With Smart Strategies, From Reading Line Movement to Spotting Trends That Can Boost Your Wins

Dominate CFB Betting

Sports betting is a hobby that is easy to start but difficult to master. By master, I mean actually winning consistently and profiting. Many new and even some experienced sports bettors fall into the traps that the sportsbooks are constantly setting and they do not get the best CFB lines.

There are many football betting secrets that can make you a better bettor once you understand them. Perfecting your college football betting strategy is the best way to make more informed bets and help your chances of winning more consistently. This is a good place to start.

Main Influences on CFB Betting Lines

The CFB consensus pick will always be the motivating factor in a line move. This means that wherever the majority of the money is is exactly where the line will move. There are a few ways to bet off this. The best is to use this information to predict line movement and beat it. Predicting line movement can be an excellent way to bet the best number every time, and while a half-point or point on one bet doesn’t sound like a lot, over time, those small amounts of points make a big difference.

Another advantage of looking at consensus picks is avoiding fishy lines. CFB betting trends show it’s always better to stay away from heavily bet public teams in spots where there is no line movement with a lot of bets on one side. This typically is a warning sign in the betting world.

Sportsbook Use of Betting Trends to Set Lines

The goal of a sportsbook is not to make the public lose. The sportsbooks care about one thing, and that’s getting even action. In a perfect world, bets would be 50-50 on each side in every game. That way, the sportsbook collects its 10-15 cents of vig (juice on the bet) and comes away the real winner at the end of the way.

Knowing this, it’s important to realize the sportsbooks will not try and set “trap” lines to sway bettors one way or another, meaning sometimes if it looks like a good bet at that number, it may just be a good number and a good bet. If the betting trend is favoring one side too heavily, the sportsbook will drop that number to try and even the action out. Using what we talked about in the last point, getting ahead of this and beating that movement is key in college football betting strategy.

Differences in Opening and Closing Lines in College Football

Another key football betting secret is to always monitor the lines, from the opening line until tip-off. The sportsbook will open a line at which they think they will get the most action and will adjust accordingly to how the market bets it.

This means some opening lines may be way off and you can take advantage by betting it early. This is a common football expert betting strategy called “CLV”, or closing line value. More often than not, the line will move at least one point from open until tip-off. Every bit the line moves after you have bet it is more perceived value you have built up in that bet.

It works the other way too. If you like a team at x number but the early market is betting on the other team, you can wait to bet it until the line has moved in your favor. This is why it is important to always monitor the lines.

CFB Betting Trends

Aside from just looking at lines and understanding CLV and consensus picks, there are other ways to find value in a college football bet.

Field Location

Comparing how a team plays on the road versus at home can be key, especially in college football. Certain teams have massive home-field advantages, and in college sports especially, the site of the game can influence a game. Now, sportsbooks will adjust lines on teams based on this, but sometimes not enough. 

Certain NCAAF teams perform much better on the road than expected, and there are several websites that can track this. Most common bettors who don’t do research assume the home team has value and can drive the price up, giving value to the road team, and vice versa. It’s important to always look into these games with research to make more informed bets.

Weather

The weather influences football more than any other sport except maybe baseball. Even then, baseball is canceled in the rain/snow, whereas football plays on, even if it affects on-field conditions, which it often does. This tip is most useful for totals, as looking into the weather for a game can give a big advantage on the total. Sportsbooks may drop lines for bad weather games, but often not enough, giving an edge on under. 

Similarly, teams often play better in domes, which are less common in college football, but beautiful weather/dome games can produce higher-scoring games than anticipated, giving an edge on the over. Researching weather can be an extremely effective college football betting strategy.

Inflated Underdog Lines

Favorites are always the team projected to win, but that doesn’t mean they always will. The better team does not always win in sports. This is important for two reasons. Mainly, it helps you understand that favorites are not always free bets and to not ever go too heavy on favorites just because they’re expected to win.

Additionally, this means that there is often a ton of value on underdogs getting points, especially if you believe the matchup is closer than it looks on paper. Underdogs often cover the spread even if they lose the game, which is all a bettor needs when taking the underdog. Favorites will always average ~50% at covering the spread, so it’s important to give underdogs love too.

First-Half Lines

If you think a team has a better chance to keep it close in the first half rather than the full game, always bet the first-half line instead. Almost every sportsbook will have college football first-half lines, and sometimes these bets are smarter than taking a full-game spread or moneyline. The same thing goes for first-half totals too.