Thursdays is one my days off work. So the fact I’ve snuck onto my computer to post this selection gives you some idea how much I love the price.

I was able to listen to the brilliant Betfair Football Only Bettor Podcast whilst doing the washing up and have listed a few bets I’ll be adding for the weekend, but this one just couldn’t wait as I think the price might tumble.

Jake Osgathorpe is the man to thank for this. He delivered the brilliant stat that in 15 of Forest’s last 18 matches the deepest opposing central midfielder has been carded.

Due to injury problems at Bournemouth, Tyler Adams should fulfil that role at the weekend and with very few options from the bench it’s likely the American will play most of this game.

That’s something which hasn’t happened much this season. In fact in his 6 appearances at home, he’s only managed 253 minutes of football. Despite those limited minutes, he’s been carded 3 times in the Premier League at home, which equates to 1.06 cards per 90. That’s ridiculous. Obviously it’s an extremely small sample, but it’s a beautiful stat.

Forest will look to hit Bournemouth on the counter attack and it will be Adams job to prevent the likes of Morgan Gibbs from racing free.

Craig Pawson is the man in the middle and he’s averaged 4.76 cards per game this season in the Premier League.

The average odds on the grid are just 3.4. The 4/1 at SkyBet is wrong and I doubt it will last. I’ve gone big on this one. These are the type of wagers that I set up this feature in the first place.

2.5pts – Tyler Adams to be Carded v Nottingham Forest – 4/1 @ SkyBet

Sorry. Obviously very late here but I forgot it was a Wednesday start. Chances are you’ve backed Aberg already.

Ben Coley and Matt Vincenzi had already put him up when in form Steve Palmer joined the party. I’ve only just finished listening to the Sweet Spot, hence the late post.

When those 3 all back the same player, it would be silly not to get involved. Aberg is a class act in what is a weak field for a tournament of his stature. He finished 9th here on his debut last season.

Currently 6th in the World Rankings he’s been strong in recent events since returning from knee surgery finishing 6th in the Hero World Challenge and T5 in the Sentry.

Ben Coley has lumped on 4pts EW and Steve Palmer said he felt 5/1 would be fair. Hence why I’m happy to go 1pt each way here.

1pt EW (2pts) Ludvig Aberg to win the Farmers Insurance Open – 10/1 @ SpreadEx