When it comes to betting on football, nothing feels better than rooting for the plucky underdog and walking away with a fat stack of cash because you believed in the little guy. But NFL underdogs aren’t just about fairy-tale endings—they’re also about strategy, research, and knowing when to take a calculated risk.
Here, we’ll break down how to spot smart underdog bets, avoid common pitfalls, and increase your chances of winning big in NFL betting.
Why Betting on NFL Underdogs Works
First things first—why bet on underdogs at all? Shouldn’t you just stick to the favorites and play it safe? Well, if playing it safe was fun, then football betting wouldn’t exist. Here’s why underdogs could be your ticket to big wins:
- Bigger Payouts: Betting on underdogs means taking a higher risk, but it also comes with bigger rewards. A winning $100 bet on an underdog could yield two or three times what you’d make betting on the favorite.
- Mispriced Odds: Oddsmakers aren’t perfect. Sometimes, they underestimate an underdog’s potential due to public betting trends (hello, hype train). This gives savvy NFL bettors the chance to capitalize.
- The NFL Is Unpredictable: Injuries, last-minute weather changes, and just plain old luck mean every NFL game has an element of the unexpected. Teams counted out before kickoff often go on to shock fans, the league and the world.
If the possibility of winning big on an overlooked team doesn’t get your adrenaline pumping, maybe NFL betting isn’t your game. For everyone else, read on.
Spotting Smart NFL Underdog Bets
Not every underdog is a golden ticket. A 1-10 team facing an undefeated squad isn’t a Cinderella story waiting to happen—it’s a bad idea waiting to eat your cash. Here’s how to pick the right underdogs:
1. Look for Divisional Matchups
Divisional games can be absolute chaos. Why? Because these teams know each other inside and out. Rivalries are fierce, and even the weakest divisional teams tend to play up to the level of their competition. Look at historical trends when betting divisional underdogs—they often cover the spread or might even allow you to snag a win.
2. Pay Attention to Injuries (aka “Next Man Up” Syndrome)
Yeah, losing a star player can sink a team, but it can also bring out the best in their backups. When an underdog loses a key player, betting lines can overreact. If a team has strong depth and coaching, they might rally and exceed expectations.
3. Check the Weather
If you see snow, rain, or wind in the latest NFL weather forecast, this is your sign to dig into that underdog. Bad weather levels the playing field, especially if the favorite relies on a high-powered passing game or finesse offense.
4. Monitor Line Movement
Track the spread throughout the week. If heavy betting on the favorite hasn’t shifted the line too much, there might be value in the underdog. Conversely, if the line suddenly tightens up, oddsmakers might be banking on a closer game than most bettors expect.
5. Focus on Strong Defenses
A scrappy, aggressive defense can help underdog teams cover spreads and surprise favorites. Look for teams that create turnovers, stop the run, or excel in critical third-down situations. Defense wins championships—and yes, it also wins bets.
Popular NFL Underdog Betting Strategies
Okay, so you’ve spotted a promising underdog. Now what? Betting on the underdog isn’t just about picking a winner—it’s about maximizing your edge. Here are some of the most effective strategies:
Moneyline Bets for the Bold
A moneyline bet means you’re picking the underdog to win outright. While riskier, this option also offers the biggest payouts. If you believe the stars are aligning for an upset, this is where the cash lives.
Bet Against Public Hype
When everyone’s placing their NFL bet on the favorite (because Patrick Mahomes’ face is all over ESPN), sportsbooks might adjust the line to accommodate. This creates value for the underdog. Betting against the public is a classic contrarian move.
Play the Spread
If you’re not quite ready to put all your chips in the middle, you can still bet on the underdog using the spread. Spread bets give the underdog a points advantage, meaning they only need to “lose by less” or outright win to get you paid.
Parlay with a Favorite
Feeling lucky? Pair an underdog moneyline with a safer favorite in a parlay bet. While this adds risk, the payout boost makes it worth considering—especially if you think both bets have a strong chance of hitting.
Live Betting
Underdogs can become goldmines during live NFL bets. Keep an eye out for in-game momentum swings. Did the underdog just pick off a pass? Is their offensive line holding strong? Live betting lets you capitalize on these moments with updated odds.
Pitfalls to Avoid When Betting on Underdogs
Betting on underdogs can be thrilling, but there are common mistakes that could leave your wallet empty and your confidence shattered. Here’s how to avoid them:
- Overvaluing Emotion: Betting with your heart instead of your head is the fastest way to go broke. Yes, the Jets were your grandpa’s favorite team, but they’ll need to prove something before earning your bet.
- Ignoring Key Stats: Don’t skip the homework. Check team stats, turnover differentials, and recent trends before placing your bet.
- Chasing Long Shots: Not every underdog has a chance. Be realistic—if history and numbers are entirely stacked against them, walk away.
- Betting Too Big: Remember, not every bet pays off. Bankroll management is key to surviving the highs and lows of NFL betting.
Why Betting on NFL Underdogs Is Worth the Risk
There’s a certain magic to pulling for the team everyone’s counting out. Whether it’s the scrappy underdog clawing their way to victory or the lucrative payout in your digital wallet, betting on underdogs rewards risk-takers in both emotional and financial ways.
By focusing on divisional matchups, defensive strength, weather conditions, and public betting behavior, you can avoid the pitfalls and bet smarter. With the right strategies in place, underdog wins turn from fluke to formula.
