Racehorses trained in Britain won just five of the 28 races at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival. All the rest went to raiders from the Emerald Isle.
Much has been made of the Irish dominance at Cheltenham, not least because Gold Cup-winning trainer Henry De Bromhead has since replicated his 1-2 there is another prestigious steeplechase, the Grand National at Aintree. Both of his big spring festival staying chase winners, Minella Indo and Minella Times, share more than just a name with the same grandsire in Sadler’s Wells.
It seems somewhat flippant to suggest that just backing racehorses trained in Ireland for Cheltenham would see you beat the bookies and come out in front. Except for one race at the Festival, the Ultima Handicap Chase, at least one horse from outside the UK place in every other event at the meeting. This is precisely the kind of data fed into AI models, and such systems form horse racing betting markets and, by the same token, tips on major horse racing galas like Cheltenham. Some way out from next year’s Festival, just three early ante-post favourites for the conditions races are British.
Even Shishkin, a dual Cheltenham winner following successes in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Arkle Challenge Trophy, may not be as solid as his Queen Mother Champion Chase odds suggest. Although he is fast becoming the top stable star of Nicky Henderson’s Seven Barrows yard as Altior wanes, his novice chase campaign had opposition running scared.
Shishkin heads the Champion Chase betting, but a much-anticipated clash with dual Irish Grade 1 winner Energumene didn’t happen this season like that one missed Cheltenham. We may get that head-to-head next year, though, so an acid test awaits Henderson’s young pretender.
Thyme Hill, meanwhile, is just a favourite for the 2022 Stayers’ Hurdle but his previous Cheltenham course form figures are 2314. The worst placings among those efforts came at the Festival in 2019 and 2020. Main market rival Klassical Dream also missed Cheltenham this year, but like Thyme Hill enjoyed Grade 1 success elsewhere on a flatter track.
It seems the danger to what few British-trained favourites there are for the Festival hail from the Closutton stables of Willie Mullins. That theme may continue with the Grade 2 novice hurdle for mares named after Dawn Run too. Elle Est Belle was the first of the home team past the post in the Champion Bumper in third, but could only go one place better rather than win the Aintree equivalent.
Arthur Moore trained the winner, Me Too Please, on Merseyside but Dan Skelton will be more worried about Mullins, who dominated the Punchestown Festival almost single-handed and has a great record with his mares. There are also several Cheltenham races which, at this stage, UK runners don’t even get a look-in.
Much could change throughout the course of the new jumps season in the British Isles, but the fact remains that most of the best National Hunt horses remain in training over the Irish Sea.
