This stage of the season is the ideal time to analyse the PFA Player of the Year betting markets. While the overall narrative of the season could be completely changed by a player’s fine run of form in the closing months, it is worth making a move now to try and catch any value before it disappears. Waiting much longer could see a standout candidate emerge at an unattractive price.
Interestingly, the PFA Player of the Season winners this decade haven’t always been taken from the Premier League champions. Of the eight, only Eden Hazard (14/15), Riyad Mahrez (15/16) and N’Golo Kante (16/17) have lifted the title. However, with such fine margins in the title race, it is likely that the player who swings it in their team’s favour this year could be rewarded. Here is a look at three candidates from the three horses still running in the title race.
Fernandinho
The importance of Fernandinho to Manchester City is not up for debate, with the Brazilian’s presence in the middle of the park integral to Pep Guardiola’s tactics. The only question is whether a largely unglamorous midfielder will be considered a serious contender for Player of the Year. Kante’s success in 16/17 bodes well for Fernandinho, while any realistic title hopes of City hinge more on the Brazilian’s fitness than any other player.
Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling and David Silva are all widely available at shorter odds than Fernandinho, but such is City’s attacking depth that those three could underperform for the remainder of the season and Guardiola’s side still claim the title. The same is not true of Fernandinho, who can be found as long as 33/1 in some places.
Son Heung-min
The South Korean attacker’s bid to be Player of the Year has gained considerable momentum in recent years, given Son’s propensity to pop up with decisive goals. In the absence of Harry Kane, Son has effortlessly stepped up to be Spurs’ talisman. This was true in the Champions League; betconnect’s blog identified Son as a viable first goalscorer tip at 4/1 against Borussia Dortmund, with the forward duly setting Spurs on their way to a 3-0 win. Such is his form that Son makes a strong case as first goalscorer to be the best bet of the day amongst pro gamblers for remaining Premier League matchdays. If Spurs storm to a shock title, then Son is a shoo-in for this award. Even if Spurs fall short, Son’s run of form will be hard to ignore if he keeps it going much longer.
Sadio Mane
Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk is current favourite for Player of the Year, a reflection of Liverpool’s status as title favourites and the Dutch centre-back’s imperious form. A defender hasn’t won this award since John Terry in 04/05, with the voters so often seduced by an attacking player in great form.
Salah represents Liverpool’s next shortest option, and with good reason, but it is Mane who has shone in recent weeks. If Salah drops off slightly and Mane is the driving force to get Liverpool over the line, the Senegalese forward could be a shock winner. Mane can currently be found as high as 100/1, a price that will shorten dramatically with each week that brings another goal for Liverpool’s title bid.
At this stage, no player can come from obscurity to win this award. These three players have performed solidly throughout the season and could be hitting the kind of form that takes their side to the title, bringing personal acclaim with it.
