One of the biggest dilemma’s with following popular betting tipsters online is odds availability. The better the tipster the quicker and more dramatic the price drops will be.
For example if Mark O’Haire stakes 3pts on shit loads of goals in the fourth tier of Scottish football at Even (2.0) money, the chances are you ain’t getting that price.
That’s not a dig at Mark by the way, it was just an example and happens to the majority of the top tipsters.
Our decision as a punter is what price are we willing to accept? I’ve always been reluctant to follow golf tipster Ben Coley in the knowledge if he backs a 150/1 shot, chances are by the time I get to back it, 100/1 might be the top price. That’s something I’ve found hard to accept and in the past have ignored tipsters as a result.
Adjusting my stake when odds change
I’m now adopting a different strategy. What I do if the price has dropped is change my stake. Take Coley as an example, from the word go I opted for a very low £2.50 per point staking plan in the knowledge it would be nigh on impossible to match both his prices and profit.
Such are the reductions in odds when SportingLife publish his golf tips, I wasn’t even confident I would even make a profit. To date, I have, review to follow soon.
For other tipsters where the price drop varies, I simply adjust my stake on a bet to bet basis.
Let’s go back to Mark O’Haire and his confident even money shot from North of the Border. If the price has dropped from 2.0 to 1.9, I will still back that tip, perhaps even shorter, say 1.85.
But what I’ll do is reduce the stake. Rather than a 3pt stake I’ll adjust it accordingly depending on how the odds had fallen. So if 1.9 was now the best price I might reduce my stake to 2pts.
Why I change my stakes
The logic is if the price has dropped, so has the value. Betting is all about value. I have always adopted the approach that the more value in the odds, the higher my stake. So if some of that value has disappeared, I want to be betting less.
It’s entirely up to you if you want to follow my example and adopt a similar approach. I really believe it’s the best way to follow tipsters. Ultimately you’ll end up with a different profit/loss to them, but that’s almost inevitable given bookmaker limitations and price drops.
For those of you interested I’ve now reached 550 settled bets with a +35pts profit and a ROI of 11.24%. A great start, one which I suspect may not be sustainable, but I’m delighted none the less.
Tipster Reviews
Once a tipster that I’m following has reached 100 bets I will post a review. I’ll then make a decision whether I want to keep following that tipster or adjust my stakes. If I continue to follow I will post further reviews at 250 tips, 500 tips and 1000 tips.
My goal, as it has been for the past 10 years here at Betting Kingdom is to help punters beat the bookmakers.
