Image by Alessio Bragadini CC BY-SA 2.0
(Caption: Can anyone stop the All Blacks from picking up a third world cup in a row?)
There’s nothing quite as exciting in the world of rugby union as a World Cup, when the very best in the game lock horns in pursuit of the William Webb Ellis trophy. RWC 2019 kicks off on Friday 20th September, with the hosts taking on Russia in Pool A, and culminates 48 matches later with the grand final in Yokohama on Saturday 2nd November. But with many pundits describing it as the most open World Cup in years, who will be playing in that final, and who will be lost along the way?
Despite their less-than-impressive run in the Rugby Championship so far, the All Blacks remain the strong favourites with SkyBet to lift the trophy at 5/4. Yet they are far from being the only team capable of winning this time around. There are several home nations who have a genuine chance of preventing New Zealand from claiming a hattrick of World Cup wins.
Are Irish eyes smiling?
At the end of last year, Ireland were on a roll on the road to the RWC 2019. They had swept the board with a Six Nations Grand Slam and come back from 1-0 down to take a series win in Australia’s own back yard by 1-2. To top it all off, they even beat the mighty All Blacks 16-9 in Dublin, becoming the first team to stop them scoring a try since 1995.
However, this year’s Six Nations appeared to show that the opposition had worked out Joe Schmidt’s tactics. Defeats to both England in Dublin and Wales in Cardiff left them floundering mid-table and looking far less of a contender for Japan. They should easily progress from Group A, but an inspired Japan and a big-hearted Samoa could still prove to be banana skins if they are not given the respect they deserve. Their fifth favourite position of 7/1 seems about right
Image by National Assembly for Wales CC BY 2.0
(Caption: Can Warren Gatland inspire a Welsh win?)
Warren Gatland to win for Wales?
While everyone has been focussing on Ireland’s giant killing exploits, Wales have crept quietly up to second in the world with their solid defence, penalty saving discipline and sheer self-belief. They go to Japan off the back of a Six Nations Grand Slam, which included a 25-7 dismantling of Ireland. They also have a settled side under long-term coach and Lions leader, Warren Gatland.
Group D should hold no worries for the Welsh, who should have enough to get past spirited Georgia and Fiji. All being well, they’ll easily progress, even if a mis-firing Australia struggle to join them. At 6/1 for favourites, Wales look to be on track to stage a surprise.
England to escape group of death
Of all the home nations, England probably have the hardest work ahead of them in the group stage, with both France and Argentina to contend with in Group C. Memories of 2015 will be fresh in many heads and concerns about a second successive group stage failure could cramp their style. Having got to within four points of the All Blacks and six of Australia in the recent Rugby Championship, Argentina are clearly an improving team, and France, on their good days, can be world beaters.
If everything clicks, England can be magnificent to watch with a fast and furious intensity that few teams can keep up with. Yet, as they showed when throwing away a 31-0 lead against Scotland, they need to improve their consistency if they are to exploit those talents. England are only ranked fifth in the world at the moment, yet their huge potential makes them second favourites for the tournament at 5/1.
Scotland on the charge
Scottish rugby has been experiencing something of a renaissance in recent years, fostering the kind of belief that brought them back from the dead at Twickenham to create a draw that felt like a win. It feels unlikely that they have what it takes to go all the way, but they have a good chance of progressing beyond Group A. They probably deserve their 50-1 outsider status overall, but there is value in how far they will progress. 4-1 to reach the semi-finals seems a fair price for the Murrayfield faithful to get on to.
Other value
Beyond the home nations, there are a few upsets that could be worth looking at. After their famous victory against South Africa in 2015, you should never rule out Japan, especially in front of their home crowd, and 11/4 to progress beyond Group A seems good value. With the quality on offer in South Africa and New Zealand, an all-Southern Hemisphere final also seems worth backing at 3/1, with South Africa v New Zealand favourite at 4/1. For the more patriotic amongst you, an England v Ireland final at 14/1 or England v Wales at 22/1 could be worth a small investment.
