Not a bad weekend in truth with a small profit thanks to Mateta getting himself on the scoresheet. In fact I placed 5 bets last week and 2 of them won. Both of those were for Mateta to score. Roll of Crystal Palace’s next game.
Tonight Aston Villa take on Liverpool in the Premier League and I’m following the advice of Lewis Jones. He’s a new tipster I’ve come across that has earned himself a place on the Betfair Podcast and I love what he has to say.
He strongly fancies Liverpool here pointing to the fact Villa were in Greece on Thursday in Europe and are likely to be jaded and mentally fragile after their exit from that competition.
It’s been an amazing season for the Villa fans, boosted by the relegation of their rivals Birmingham to League One. But is their place in the Champions League justified, Lewis seems to think it’s somewhat of a false position.
In their last 15 games Villa have an xGA of 1.91. For anyone not familiar with expected goals, that’s how many goals you would have expected them to concede if chances were converted as per the norm.
Over that sample size it’s the 4th worst in the Premier League, even higher than Sheffield United which says something. In those 15 games Aston Villa have conceded 42 “Big Chances”. That’s 2.8 per game. Only Luton have conceded more.
Liverpool sit top of that statistics this season with 95 big chances created so you can see why Luke is leaning towards a comfortable win for the away side.
Is these stats which push him towards the Goalkeeper saves market. It’s unsure whether it will be Martinez or Olsen which starts this game but you can back both and get your stake refund when one of them doesn’t start (you’d be unlucky if they both start).
The goalkeeper saves Stat for Liverpool’s recent Premier League matches makes for interesting reading.
9 for Spurs
6 for West Ham
7 for Everton
4 for Fulham
6 for Crystal Palace
5 for Man United
6 for Sheffield United
6 for Brighton
5 for Man City
So it leaves me scratching my head somewhat and confused as to why 365 are offering 9/4 (3.25) on Villa’s keeper making 4 of more saves this evening. That is my bet of the day thanks to Lewis Jones and the Betfair Podcast. Good luck and always gamble responsibly folks.
Bet: Martinez or Olsen Over 4.5 Goalkeeper Saves – 3.25
Credit: Lewis Jones and Betfair Podcast – https://betting.betfair.com/podcasts/
