A decent start for Mr Rai in Canada and I’m even more excited about that wager having invested a free bet, courtesy of SpreadEx on the young Englishman. Should that bet land it will make a huge difference to my betting pot going forward.
As we stand I’m only just in profit and could really do with a weekend winner from Wembley. I’ve followed the advice of both Lewis Jones and Jake Osgathorpe, two tipsters I rate extremely highly and I believe they’ve found a great value selection for the Champions League final.
Real Madrid are definitely the team to be siding with here as they go in search of a 15th Champions League title. Carlo Ancelotti is the man in charge and has won his last 6 major finals, with an average of just 2.1 goals (more on that later).
Real Madrid are currently on a 47 game unbeaten run (in 90 minutes) across all competitions and come into this final as the 1.62 favourites. They face a Dortmund side that finished 5th in the Bundesliga and have ridden their luck to reach this stage.
During this competition so far they have an xGA of 1.91. That was higher than Burnley had in the Premier League this season, that gives you an idea of how lucky they have been during their European campaign.
UCL Final Preview
🇩🇪 Dortmund v Real Madrid 🇪🇸🤤 A salivating player fouls bet
🤯 A 33/1 two-player four fold
🎩 A hatful of superb anglesGet involved.@kevinhatchard | @MarkOHaire | @LewisJonesKnows | @markstinchcombe
— Betfair (@Betfair) May 30, 2024
Recent Champions League finals have been low scoring affairs with the last 5 producing just 6 goals. Each of the last 4 finals finished 1-0.
As Lewis Jones pointed out on the excellent Football Only Bettor Podcast, host ground Wembley has been a haven for under backers.
In the last 38 domestic matches at Wembley, the average goals per 90 minutes stands at just 1.94. 34 of those finals finished under 3.5 goals. It’s been the same in recent weeks with all 3 playoff finals and the FA Cup final finishing with 3 goals or less.
Ancelotti is likely to take a cautious approach early doors and with a defensive unit that have kept 21 clean sheets in 43 matches he should be confident his talented attackers can exploit this Dortmund defence.
6/4 (2.5) is available at several bookmakers on Real Madrid winning this final inside 90 minutes and under 3.5 goals being scored. Check out the excellent article by Jake Osgathorpe and the Betfair Podcast which includes some additional selections at bigger prices.
I’m taking the weekend off, so no bets from me. Enjoy and please continue to gamble responsibly. Come on Rai, don’t let me down son!!
Bet: Real Madrid and Under 3.5 Goals – 0.55pts – 2.5
Credit Sources:
Betfair Podcast – Lewis Jones – https://open.spotify.com/episode/6MFLpo8td753GQDgjV1f09
SportingLife – Jake Osgathorpe – https://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/champions-league-final-tips-dortmund-vs-real-madrid-best-bets-and-preview/218230
