Back on the Erasmus at what is a ridiculous price. He’s already netted me one big payout during this World Cup, so I’m diving in head first again.
The Euro’s got off to the perfect start with both of the Super Boosts landing inside 20 minutes. Job done.
I started this best bets feature with a £50 pot. I’ve placed 31 bets and my pot is now £205.94, that’s a ROI of 65.6%. Wow!!
That is obviously a very small sample and I don’t for a minute expect it to continue. Plus with my aggressive strategy (staking 10% of my pot) a poor run could see my profit come crashing down fairly quickly.
But the benefit of being this selective is I feel every bet I’m placing right now offers huge value and today is now different. Erasmus has been the Top Namibia Bowler in 7 of his last 19 T20 Internationals, that equates to odds of 2.72.
In his 7 T20s he’s taken 2 or more wickets which against strong opposition like England would almost certainly land this bet.
England v Namibia T20 World Cup Tips: Gamble on shock of all shocks https://t.co/7VG8AzSGve @Betfair
— Ed Hawkins (@cricketbetting) June 15, 2024
If you look at the odds across the board then it’s clear to see some bookmakers have just got this wrong. I’m not sure why, but they clearly are not paying attention to the stats. The odds on Erasmus winning this market with the bookmakers on the oddschecker grid are as follows.
4.3
4.33
4.33
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
5.0
6.0
6.0
7.5
7.5
7.5
You’d think they would pay a little bit more attention to what their rivals are doing and adjust the price accordingly. What it does tell us is how little they care about cricket. I’m sure they’re not taking many bets on Erasmus as most punters are chucking their money at Euro 2024 Bet Builders.
I’m not even going to bother looking at the Euro matches today because I could spend hours reading tips and researching stats and I doubt very much I’d find value anywhere near this good. In fact when I backed Erasmus in the first game I said it was one of the best bets I had ever made. I’m getting the same odds today.
Please always gamble responsibly and keep your stakes to a level where you can afford to lose. I believe gambling should be fun so if your bet loses and it has an effect on your mood, then realise you need to reduce your stakes.
In terms of crediting cricket betting tipsters, Ed Hawkins is the man to thank here for pointing out what a good price Erasmus was based on Win Rate. Give Ed a follow. He’s a great tipster.
Andy Schooler also appears to have jumped on the Erasmus bandwagon and has tipped him in an article for Kwiff!!
Sadly my bookmaker limitations have kicked in here and despite 3 firms going top price the most I could stake was £8.40. This is where you have to accept that you’re never get rich from betting on sports like cricket. The bookies just won’t allow it.
Bet: Erasmus Top Namibia Bowler v England – 0.84pts @ 7.5
Photo by Nipun Chandra Surnilla on Unsplash
