I was left disappointed when I placed my latest Peter James novel onto my bedside table, knocking off my “Man’s best Friend” Bulldog oil control moisturiser in the process (sadly this blog post isn’t sponsored, but you never know who’s reading, freebies gratefully appreciated) and picking up phone to check the football score.
Nil bloody nil. Not what you want to see when you’ve wagered on the Anytime Goalscorer market. I rested my head on the pillow frustrated at a third consecutive losing bet. Damn.
Upon waking and checking the score after my Deliciously Ella Granola (freebies of this would be great for the bank balance) I was left even more irked to see El Kaabi had bagged the winning goal in extra time. Shit happens I guess.
So we move on. Thursday is normally a day off for me. It’s generally one of the most quiet for sporting events in the week and myself and the missus will head off to a local National Trust or take advantage of the £2 buses to keep ourselves amused for the day.
But today I’m working as she waits for her new swing seat to arrive and I get the opportunity to add an extra bet. Time is limited with the RBC Canadian Open getting underway in about an hour.
But having landed a winner on the golf last week, albeit another disheartening conclusion to reduce the return, I’m trying a similar approach this week. Starting by backing a player selected by the excellent Ben Coley.
Canadian Open preview now live.
Ground rules: can only complain if Hughes misses all the putts, or if Conners misses all the greens.https://t.co/81ucugomFv
— Ben Coley (@BenColeyGolf) May 28, 2024
The main difference I’m opting for a difference market, the Top 20 market. I think backing players who are shit at putting to place in the Top 20 makes a lot of sense right? They’re likely to hit the ball great, keep finding the dance floor and post some consistent rounds. But they won’t make the putts that will threaten the leaders.
That’s evident when you look at a player like Aaron Rai. His ball striking stats are great. T19 in Strokes Gained (SG) Tee to Green, T9 in SG Approach and T12 in SG Tee to Green. It’s his putting that lets him down.
That correlates in his tournament finishing positions most weeks. T32 at Colonial and T39 at the US PGA in his two most recent starts. Not Top 20s I know but we do have weaker field here in Canada so that same level of performance might be good enough.
Rai was also T35 at the Players Championship, T7 in the Houston Open and T4 in the CJ Cup. The par 70 with small greens should actually play to his strengths as well.
The 29 year old Englishman has enjoyed his last two appearances in the RBC Canadian Open finishing 3rd and 13th.
There’s a lot I like about this bet, perhaps not the price so much, but I always think bookmakers are lazy in a market like this and just compile their odds based on the outright markets. Players who putt poorly should definitely be shorter in the Top 20 market and I hope it’s an approach that will serve me well going forward.
Bet: Aaron Rai to finish in the Top 20 of the RBC Canadian Open – 0.6pts @ 3.0
