It might seem odd to be considering the outright markets for Grand Slams that are still months away on the calendar. After all, a tennis player can fall to injury or poor form at any moment, while a new contender may emerge on the ATP tour. However, because the top of the market is so heavily skewed to the game’s elite, any worthwhile contender who emerges quickly shortens in price. Therefore, it is worth looking ahead to the next two Grand Slams, with the French Open in May and Wimbledon in July offering two very different propositions.
French Open
The French Open outright market is perhaps the sparsest when it comes to finding value. That is because of one Rafael Nadal, who has seized a near monopoly on the title at Roland Garros in the past decade. If any Grand Slam is best-suited for saving bets for specific occurrences during a game or the final score of a match, then it is the French Open.
Nadal can be found at odds of around evens to continue his reign as King of Clay, which may even be too generous a price. However, Nadal has to play somebody in the final, or he could fall to injury as he did in 2016. The outright French Open market from Redbet provides some sportsbetting opportunities for those willing to chance a Nadal disappointment. Stan Wawrinka may have won the French Open as recently as 2015 but his injury struggles make him 30/1 in the outright market.
While Wawrinka lost in the second round at the Australian Open, he did so in a competitive defeat to a resurgent Milos Raonic. It is risky to bet on outright markets so far in advance, as a lot can happen on the ATP tour in a few months but, if Wawrinka continues to prove his fitness, then that price of 30/1 will shrink substantially. Last year’s quarter-finalist Diego Schwartzman and traditional clay expert Pablo Cuevas could present interesting hedging opportunities if they go deep, with hefty prices of around 150/1 and 600/1 respectively.
Wimbledon
Hearts might hope that Andy Murray enjoys the ultimate swansong at his home Slam but the heads surely cannot agree. The only grass Slam provides some interesting opportunities as different players thrive on the surface, although the usual names of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will likely head the market in the summer. With the impending departure of Murray, perhaps another Brit will come to the fore.
Kyle Edmund’s grass-court performances on tour don’t make for happy reading, with a 10-23 record. However, Edmund has come on in leaps and bounds in recent years. It took four sets from Djokovic in last year’s third round to see off Edmund, while the Brit only lost at Queens to the mercurial Nick Kyrgios. While Edmund’s fitness remains a concern, that poor grass record is likely to inflate his price well above his ability level.
2010 finalist Tomas Berdych appears to be at full fitness once again so his price will quickly shorten from around 60/1. The same will apply for two-time semi-finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga; a fit Frenchman could make a mockery of a 200/1 price. Daniil Medvedev is more unproven but the emerging Russian with a 23-11 record on grass can be found at big prices that don’t reflect his ability.
While these players may be unlikely to win the tournament outright, taking a chance on a big-priced outsider with the pedigree and talent to make the semi-finals can present some interesting hedging opportunities.
